NCAA Tournament Midwest Region: Top first-round matchups, upsets, predictions

Michael Cohen

College Football and College Basketball Writer

Purdue earned the Refuse. 1 seed within the Midwest Area in spite of bowing out of the Large Ten Match with an overtime loss to Wisconsin within the semifinals.

The Boilermakers stormed throughout the steady season with a 28-3 total report and a 17-3 convention mark to win the league with room to backup. Now, in what’s the terminating hurrah for heart Zach Edey, it’s about what head trainer Matt Painter’s workforce can do within the NCAA Match then falling to double-digit seeds in 3 consecutive seasons.

Somewhere else within the area, Tennessee earned the Refuse. 2 seed then successful the SEC regular-season identify. The Volunteers might be having a look to emerge from a base part of the bracket that comes with Refuse. 3 Creighton, considered one of 3 elite groups within the Large East.

Refuse. 4 Kansas and Refuse. 5 Gonzaga around out the highest-seeded groups.  

Right here’s a whole breakdown of the Midwest:

Of the top-four seeds, which workforce has probably the most favorable draw?

In all probability the choice committee took it simple on Purdue then the embarrassment Painter and his workforce have continued in shedding to a 13-seed, a 15-seed and a 16-seed within the terminating 3 NCAA Tournaments. Assuming the Boilermakers can get era both Montana Circumstance or Grambling Circumstance within the first around, they must have a manageable opponent from the 8-9 sport with neither Utah Circumstance nor TCU rating a number of the summit 30 groups within the nation on KenPom. That are meant to get Purdue to the Candy 16. 

The Boilermakers also are moderately lucky in that Kansas is definitely the weakest 4-seed on this era’s event, as trauma questions swirl round shield Kevin McCullar Jr. (18.3 issues in line with sport) and heart Hunter Dickinson (18 issues in line with sport). This could also be one thing of a ailing era for fifth-seeded Gonzaga, which enters the Large Dance with a 25-7 total report that’s the program’s worst since 2016. Each groups are topic to doable upsets of their first-round matchups towards Samford and McNeese Circumstance, respectively.

It appears like there must be a good-looking cloudless trail for Purdue to achieve the Elite 8.  

Zach Edey discusses whether or not Purdue can put together deep NCAA tourney run

What’s the maximum smart first-round matchup on this area?

There might be plethora of ocular on Purdue towards whichever 16-seed emerges from the First 4 then what came about to the Boilermakers a era in the past in that very same spot, shedding to Fairleigh Dickinson to transform simply the second one Refuse. 1 seed to ever fall within the opening around. However this era’s workforce is healthier than what Painter had a era in the past and must be extra progressive than ever to atone.

That mentioned, probably the most attention-grabbing matchup is Refuse. 5 Gonzaga (25-7) towards Refuse. 12 McNeese Circumstance (30-3). It’s been 16 years since Gonzaga misplaced within the first around beneath head trainer Mark Few, who has reached the Candy 16 or higher in each and every of his era 8 NCAA Match appearances. However McNeese might be a prevalent dissatisfied pick out thank you to go trainer Will Wade, as soon as disgraced amid an NCAA investigation at LSU and now in his first season with the Cowboys. Wade’s workforce is considered one of simply 4 systems to win 30 video games this season and ranks 7th within the nation in 3-point grassland purpose share. McNeese can brightness it up.

Who’re the must-see gamers on this area?

Zach Edey, heart, Purdue: It is going with out pronouncing that the community’s chief scorer and the participant who is set to win his 2nd consecutive Naismith Males’s Participant of the Past award is utility observing. The 7-foot-4, 300-pound Edey is averaging 24.4 issues and 11.7 rebounds in line with sport.

Dalton Knecht, shield, Tennessee: A former zero-star contract, Knecht now ranks 14th nationally in scoring and fourth amongst gamers from energy meetings at 21.1 issues in line with sport. He has seven 30-point video games and one 40-point sport already this season.

Ryan Kalkbrenner, heart, Creighton: The 3-time Large East Defensive Participant of the Past anchors a workforce that ranks a number of the summit 25 within the nation for each offensive (twelfth) and defensive potency (twenty fourth). At 7-foot-1 and 270 kilos, he has the scale to take care of Edey must the Bluejays and Boilermakers meet within the Elite 8. 

Which workforce must be on dissatisfied alert within the opening around?

It needs to be Kansas, proper? With its two chief scorers in McCullar and Dickinson sidelined for the Large 12 Match, the Jayhawks flamed out with a 20-point loss to Cincinnati. They’ve misplaced 4 in their era 5 video games coming into March Insanity and haven’t crushed an opponent ranked within the summit 25 on KenPom since a 64-61 win over Baylor on Feb. 10. 

Samford is the type of workforce that may truly pose issues if Kansas is shorthanded. The Bulldogs play games with the 14th-fastest pace and the sixth-shortest ownership space within the nation. Translation: They like to rise and ailing the ground. The one groups with a greater scoring moderate than Samford (86 issues in line with sport) are Alabama, Kentucky, Arizona and Wright Circumstance.

Which workforce do you view as the prospective Cinderella of this area?

Given the trauma issues for Kansas and the dearth of megastar energy for Gonzaga, there’s a prospect that Refuse. 12 McNeese Circumstance and Refuse. 13 Samford each whip off upsets within the opening around. If that occurs, a kind of double-digit seeds will achieve the Candy 16.

The more secure wager is McNeese on account of Wade’s pedigree: one SEC steady season identify (2019), one Atlantic 10 steady season identify (2016) and an total report of 105-51 in 5 years at LSU. Wade may had been stuck dishonest via the NCAA, however no person has ever accused him of being a sinful trainer.

Who might be within the regional ultimate? Who will win it?

The Midwest will come all the way down to an Elite 8 matchup between Refuse. 1 Purdue and Refuse. 3 Creighton in what must be a captivating sport. Edey vs. Kalkbrenner pits two of the most productive facilities within the nation towards each and every alternative for a captivating one-on-one fight. And the purpose shield collision between Purdue’s Braden Smith (12.5 issues, 7.3 assists in line with sport) and Creighton’s Steven Ashworth (10.7 issues, 4.2 assists in line with sport) has the makings of a high-level showdown.

After all, there’s extra grief in bind for the Boilermakers. With Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander each averaging greater than 17 issues in line with sport, Creighton has a significantly better supporting forged round its weighty guy than what Purdue has circumstance Edey. The Bluejays are heading to the Ultimate 4.

Michael Cohen covers faculty soccer and basketball for FOX Sports activities with an emphasis at the Large Ten. Practice him at @Michael_Cohen13.

FOLLOW Practice your favorites to personalize your FOX Sports activities enjoy

School Basketball

Get extra from School Basketball Practice your favorites to get details about video games, information and extra